How QB Stocks Works
Complete guide to fantasy football stock trading - from basics to winning strategies
Welcome to QB Stocks!
QB Stocks is a new kind of fantasy sports game where NFL quarterbacks are traded like stocks on a virtual market. Their performance on the field directly impacts their stock price, creating a dynamic market where skilled investors can profit from their football knowledge.
Whether you're a fantasy football veteran or completely new to the game, this guide covers everything you need to understand the basics, develop winning strategies, and avoid common rookie mistakes.
Go Long
Pick QBs you expect to perform well
Go Short
Pick QBs you expect to underperform
Profit!
Grow your portfolio value
Simple Steps to Start Trading
Join the Market
Create or join a group and set your initial portfolio value to invest. You can even join or start a group in the middle of the season!
Although it's recommended that all investors in a group start with the same amount, creating a level playing field where only skill determines who wins.
Build Your Portfolio
Each week, select three quarterback stocks to go long on (bet they'll perform well) and one to short (bet they'll underperform).
Decide how to allocate your portfolio across your long positions - diversify or go all-in on your strongest conviction.
Watch the Market
As NFL games are played, quarterback performances are translated into real-time stock price movements based on completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and more.
Track how your portfolio is performing against the market of other investors.
Rebalance Weekly
After each week's games, QB prices are locked in and your portfolio value is recalculated.
Use your updated portfolio value to make new trades for the coming week, adapting your strategy based on QB matchups and trends.
The Key to Success
Your goal is to outperform the market. It's not just about picking QBs who do well - it's about picking QBs who do better than what other investors expect. This creates a dynamic, competitive environment where market psychology matters as much as raw stats.
Before Making Your First Picks
Essential Preparation Steps
- Read the rules thoroughly - Make sure you understand how QB stock prices are calculated, portfolio allocation rules, and trading restrictions.
- Familiarize yourself with the stock price calculation - have a general idea of how a QB's performance will impact their stock price.
- Research upcoming matchups - A QB facing a weak pass defense might be a good long position, while one facing an elite defense could be a short opportunity.
- Check QB health status - Make sure your picks are expected to play that week.
- Plan your portfolio allocation - Decide how to distribute your funds across your three long positions.
Picking Long Positions
When selecting QBs to go long on, look for:
- Favorable matchups against weak pass defenses
- Look for undervalued QB's (low stock prices due to an uncharacteristic bad week)
- QBs playing at home (generally more consistent)
- QBs with strong offensive lines and receiving corps
- Weather conditions favoring the passing game
Picking Short Positions
When selecting a QB to short, look for:
- Tough matchups against elite pass defenses
- Look for overvalued QB's (high stock prices due to an uncharacteristic good week)
- QBs with injured offensive weapons
- Bad weather conditions for passing (extreme wind, rain, snow)
- QBs facing high-pressure defenses with poor offensive line protection
Essential Terminology
Understanding these key terms will help you navigate QB Stocks like a pro:
- Long Position
- When you invest in a QB you expect to increase in value. You profit when their price rises.
- Short Position
- When you bet against a QB you expect to decrease in value. You profit when their price falls.
- Portfolio Value
- The total worth of your QB Stocks investments, which changes based on your picks' performance relative to the market.
- Market Multiple
- A factor that adjusts all investors' returns by the same multiple. The multiple is created each week based on the market average within a group. The market multiple ensures the game remains competitive throughout the season by creating a zero sum game of winners and losers.
- Pink Sheet (Low-Priced) Stocks
- QB stocks priced below $3.00, which have trading restrictions due to their high volatility potential.
- Hard-to-Borrow (High-Priced) Stocks
- QB stocks priced above $7.00, which have restrictions on shorting to maintain game balance.
Understanding Key Concepts
Stock Price Calculation
QB stock prices are calculated based on completion percentage, total yards, touchdowns, turnovers, and game outcomes.
Example: A QB with 65% completions, 300 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, and a win would be worth $6.83.
Portfolio Allocation
For your three long positions, you may allocate up to 100% of your portfolio (e.g., 50% on one QB, 30% on another, 20% on the third). No individual QB can make up more than 50% or less than 10%.
Your short position is automatically set at an additional 30% of your portfolio value.
Market Relativity
Your performance is measured against the average of all investors in your group. The market multiple ensures that the game remains competitive throughout the season.
Even if all QB prices rise, only those who picked better than average will see their portfolios grow.
Trading Restrictions
To maintain game balance, there are limits on very low-priced ($3 or less) and very high-priced ($7+) stocks. These restrictions prevent exploiting extreme price volatility.
There's an exception to this rule! If you held the QB the week before, they are still eligible to be picked regardless of their price!
Weekly Results
Results are finalized after the last NFL game each week. New QB prices and updated portfolio values are calculated and become the basis for next week's trading.
Make your picks before the kickoff of your QBs' games to ensure they count.
Winning Strategy
Success requires a combination of NFL knowledge, market timing, and understanding how other investors are likely to behave.
The most successful investors find undervalued QBs before they break out and anticipate which QBs are due for regression.
Example Scenario
Week 3 Trading
Your Week 3 Strategy:
- LONG (50%):Justin Herbert @ $5.40 - facing a weak secondary
- LONG (25%):Trevor Lawrence @ $3.80 - matchup advantage at home
- LONG (15%):Anthony Richardson @ $4.25 - expecting breakout game
- SHORT (30%):Baker Mayfield @ $4.10 - tough road matchup against elite defense
After Week 3 Games:
- Herbert:Price rose to $6.80 (+25.9%)
- Lawrence:Price fell to $3.20 (-15.8%)
- Richardson:Price rose to $5.10 (+20.0%)
- Mayfield:Price fell to $3.75 (-8.5%) - your short position gained!
Your Results:
Starting Portfolio: $200
Herbert (50%): +25.9% gain on $100 = $25.90 profit
Lawrence (25%): -15.8% loss on $50 = $7.90 loss
Richardson (15%): +20.0% gain on $30 = $6.00 profit
Mayfield Short (30%): +8.5% gain on $60 = $5.10 profit
Total Portfolio Change: +$29.10 (+14.6%)
Market Average Performance: +10.2%
Your New Portfolio Value: $208.80
(Because you outperformed the market by 4.4%)
Strategies for Success
Buy Low, Sell High
BASICStruggling to decide between QBs? When in doubt, default your long picks to the QB with the lower price, and your short pick to the QB with the higher price. Just like investing in the stock market, there's reversion to the mean.
Matchup-Based Trading
BASICFocus on weekly matchups rather than just QB talent. Even elite QBs can struggle against top defenses, while average QBs can excel against weak ones.
Weather Watcher
BASICMonitor weather forecasts for game days. Extreme conditions can dramatically impact QB performance, creating shorting opportunities.
Portfolio Diversification
BASICIf you are very confident in a QB, max out the allocation (50%). If you are not confident in your picks, spread your risk by allocating a similar amount (33%) to each of your three long positions.
Contrarian Approach
INTERMEDIATELook for opportunities where public perception doesn't match reality. If everyone is long on a QB who you think is overvalued, going short could yield significant returns.
Injury Impact Analysis
INTERMEDIATETrack injuries to offensive weapons and offensive line. A QB missing their top receiver or protection might underperform market expectations.
Common Rookie Mistakes to Avoid
DO
- ✓Go long QBs with low stock prices and short QBs with high stock prices
- ✓Consider multiple factors (defense, weather, injuries) in your analysis
- ✓Submit your picks well before game kickoffs
- ✓Repeat strategies that have worked successfully in previous weeks
DON'T
- ✗Rely solely on QB name recognition or season stats
- ✗Forget to submit picks (defaulting to cash)
- ✗Chase last week's performance blindly
- ✗Short a QB with a low stock price. Almost all players that go bankrupt make this mistake
Critical Mistake: Ignoring Market Relativity
Many beginners don't grasp that success in QB Stocks isn't just about picking QBs who do well - it's about picking QBs who do better than what the market expects. Your portfolio only grows if you outperform the market average of all investors.
For example, if all QB prices rise 10% on average but your picks only rise 8%, your portfolio value will actually decrease slightly despite picking QBs that increased in value.
Weekly Trading Routine
Develop a Weekly Routine
Tuesday-Thursday
- Review your previous week's performance
- Check updated QB prices after the weekend's games
- Begin researching next week's matchups
- Set your picks for the next week, especially if you're confident in early reads
Friday-Saturday
- Finalize your three long positions and one short position
- Set your portfolio allocation percentages
- Submit your picks well before the first relevant kickoff
- Review last-minute injury news or weather changes
Sunday-Monday
- Watch how your QB picks perform in their games
- Track real-time price movements during games
- Take notes on QB performances for future reference
- Begin thinking about next week's strategy
Pro Tips from Top Investors
Balance Risk and Reward
"I always allocate at least 25% to a stable, reliable QB in a good matchup. Then I might take more risk with my other positions for higher potential returns."
— Jose Felix (Beta leaderboard #1)
Focus on Offensive Line Health
"The single most underrated factor is offensive line performance. A great QB behind a struggling line will underperform expectations nearly every time."
— Doug Maxwell (Beta leaderboard #2)
Identify Value Dislocations
"Look for QBs whose stock prices don't match their recent level of play. These misalignments are temporary and provide significant profit opportunities."
— Matt Logeman (Beta leaderboard #3)
Don't Chase Last Week's Results
"Many beginners go long on QBs who just had monster games. Often these QBs are due for regression, making them perfect short candidates instead."
— Paul McChesney (Beta leaderboard #5)
Helpful Resources
These tools and resources can help you make more informed trading decisions:
QB Stats & Analysis
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) QB Grades
- NFL Next Gen Stats
- ESPN QBR Rankings
- Football Outsiders DVOA Metrics
Defense Research
- Team Pass Defense Rankings
- Pressure Rates & Sack Percentages
- Defensive Injuries Reports
- QB Performance vs. Specific Defenses
Game Conditions
- Weather Forecasts for Game Days
- Stadium Types (Indoor/Outdoor)
- Travel Distance Impact
- Home/Away Performance Splits
QB Stocks Platform
- QB Stocks Detailed Rules
- Leaderboard & Market Trends
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Weekly Market Analysis (Coming Soon)
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if my QB doesn't play?
If a QB doesn't play or records no stats in their game, their price remains unchanged from the previous week.
Can I hold cash instead of picking QBs?
Yes, but it's generally not recommended. Cash positions earn 0% return, which typically underperforms the market, causing your portfolio value to decrease relatively.
What if I forget to make picks one week?
If you don't submit picks, your portfolio will default to holding 100% cash for that week, which typically results in underperformance relative to the market.
How is the winner determined?
Each group can decide for themselves.
Some groups like to declare the investor with the highest portfolio value at the end of the NFL regular season the winner.
Some groups like to declare all of the investors with positive returns as winners and all of the investors with negative returns as losers.
Is there real money involved?
No, QB Stocks currently uses virtual currency only. Our beta is designed for you to compete for bragging rights and to test your fantasy football knowledge.
Ready to Start Trading?
Armed with these strategies and tips, you're ready to build your first QB portfolio and compete with the best.